Monday 20 Oct 2025 | 07:50 BST | London
60‑Second Takeaway
- Markets pause after gold’s record run: last week’s surge cooled into Monday as yields steadied and oil found support above $60.
- Macro diary returns: delayed US CPI and UK inflation data due mid‑week will set tone for rates.
- Earnings ramp‑up: Big Tech (Netflix, Tesla, IBM, P&G) headline Q3 season; guidance and margins are key.
- Flows steady but defensive: ETF data show modest equity inflows offset by strong bond and gold allocations.
- Risk‑On/Off score: 4 / 10 — Neutral‑to‑Defensive (gold ↑, yields ↓, credit spreads wider, equities mixed).
Macro Calendar (BST highlights)
| Day | Key Releases | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 20 Oct | Eurozone construction output; Fed speakers | Thin tape, no major data |
| Tue 21 Oct | US Retail Sales (Sep); Netflix, Coca‑Cola earnings | First major consumption read |
| Wed 22 Oct | UK CPI (Sep) 07:00 ; Tesla, IBM earnings | Headline expected ~2.5 % YoY |
| Thu 23 Oct | Eurozone Consumer Confidence; US Jobless Claims | Shutdown distortions remain |
| Fri 24 Oct | US CPI (Sep) 08:30 ET (delayed) ; P&G earnings; Flash PMIs (US/EZ/UK) | Data‑heavy finale |
Earnings Season — This Week’s Majors
| Day | Company | Theme |
|---|---|---|
| Tue 21 Oct | Netflix (AMC) · Coca‑Cola (BMO) | Consumer & streaming trends |
| Wed 22 Oct | Tesla (AMC) · IBM (AMC) | Margins, AI capex, deliveries |
| Fri 24 Oct | Procter & Gamble (BMO) | Pricing vs. volume dynamics |
Drivers & Themes
- Rates: Global yields edging down after last week’s rally; markets now price BoE cut by Feb 2026.
- Commodities: Brent’s bounce and gold’s consolidation keep commodity risk balanced.
- FX: USD firming modestly vs EUR/JPY; sterling steady.
- Credit: IG spreads 3 bps wider WTD; HY weaker on bank‑sector spillovers.
- Flows: Lipper data show +$8 bn into global bonds (mostly short‑duration) and +$2 bn into gold ETFs; equities +$1 bn, skewed to US quality growth.
Sentiment Board
| Indicator | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| AAII Bull‑Bear Spread | ‑4 pts | Neutral |
| CNN Fear & Greed | 44 / 100 | Cautious |
| VIX (futures) | 17.8 | Mild risk‑off |
| Gold/Oil ratio | 70 | Defensive |
| USD DXY | 102.7 | Risk‑neutral |
| Composite Risk‑On/Off Score | 4 / 10 | Neutral ↔ Defensive |
UK Corner
- Equities: FTSE underperformed peers WTD (‑0.8 %) on banks and energy; defensives held firm.
- Gilts: Best two‑week run since April; market comfortable with fiscal stance.
- Sterling: Supported by soft‑landing narrative; key test is CPI mid‑week.
- Upcoming data: UK CPI (Wed 22 Oct) and Retail Sales (Fri 24 Oct).
Clearly Outlook
- Equities: Maintain quality tilt while data uncertainty persists.
- Bonds: Short‑to‑medium IG favoured for ballast.
- Commodities: Neutral; gold may consolidate after outsized run.
- FX: Mild USD strength into CPI.
- Overall tone: Hold neutral weighting; rebalance into weakness.
Source Notes
Compiled 20 Oct 2025 07:50 BST from Clearly cached CSVs (prices, calendar, earnings, sentiment, flows).
Data cross‑checked against Refinitiv and Trading Economics feeds as of 07:30 BST.
For information only — not investment advice.
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