Week Ending Friday 31 Oct 2025 | 16:45 GMT | London
🌍 Market Scoreboard
| Asset | WTD % | YTD % | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ‑0.3 % | +13.5 % | Energy & banks weighed on gains |
| STOXX 600 | +0.4 % | +14.7 % | Europe resilient, led by luxury & staples |
| S&P 500 | +0.6 % | +14.1 % | Tech steady; defensive bid continued |
| NASDAQ 100 | +0.9 % | +16.5 % | Earnings beat from Big Tech |
| Gold (spot) | +0.8 % | +57 % | Safe‑haven bid intact |
| Brent crude | ‑1.1 % | ‑6 % | Demand concerns → price drift |
| GBP/USD | +0.2 % | +7.9 % | Sterling firm on soft‑landing hopes |
| 10‑yr Gilt yield | 4.44 % (‑3 bps WTD) | ‑42 bps YTD | BoE cut expectations firming |
🧭 Key Drivers
- Macro: US CPI (+2.6 % YoY) and Eurozone CPI (+2.4 %) underscored disinflation; bond markets rallied.
- Earnings: Big Tech beat expectations (Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon) while banks and energy lagged.
- Rates: Fed and BoE speakers hint at policy plateau → yield curve bull‑flattening.
- Commodities: Gold steady at record zone; oil soft amid muted China PMI (49.4).
- Flows: ETF data show continued bond buying (+$6 bn), gold (+$1.5 bn), equities flat.
🏆 Winners & Losers
| Category | Winners | Losers |
|---|---|---|
| Sectors | Tech (Cloud & AI) · Healthcare · Utilities | Energy · Financials · Real Estate |
| Regions | US > EU > UK | Asia lagged on weak China data |
| Styles | Quality Growth & Momentum | Value & Cyclicals |
💰 Flows & Sentiment
- Global flows: $6 bn into bonds, $1.5 bn into gold ETFs, equities net flat.
- Retail sentiment: AAII Bull‑Bear spread ‑2 → neutral zone.
- VIX: 16.7 (‑0.4 WTD) → low volatility regime persists.
- Gold/Oil ratio: ~71 → defensive bias remains.
- USD DXY: 102.3 (‑0.2 %) → slight softening.
- Composite Risk‑On/Off Score: 5 / 10 → Neutral.
🇬🇧 UK Corner
- Equities: FTSE soft (‑0.3 %) as banks and energy drag; defensives offset losses.
- Gilts: Rally continued; 2‑yr yield below 4.5 % first time since April.
- Sterling: Stable above 1.34 vs USD; carry appeal intact.
- Data: UK Retail Sales (+0.3 % m/m) beat consensus; consumer resilience noted.
- BoE Watch: Nov meeting expected to hold rates; markets price first cut for Feb 2026.
🔭 Next‑Week Radar (Week of 3 Nov)
| Day | Focus | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 3 Nov | US ISM Manufacturing · BoE MPC speeches | Activity tone check |
| Tue 4 Nov | Eurozone GDP (Q3) · US Factory Orders | Growth confirmation |
| Wed 5 Nov | BoE Rate Decision | Hold expected — guidance key |
| Thu 6 Nov | US Jobless Claims · China Caixin PMI | Global growth pulse |
| Fri 7 Nov | US Non‑Farm Payrolls (Oct) | Labour trend pivot |
Clearly Perspective
- Maintain neutral risk stance heading into central‑bank week.
- Overweight quality growth equities; stay long core bonds.
- Retain defensive hedges via gold & low‑beta exposure.
- Cash balance ↑ for opportunistic re‑entry on pullbacks.
Prepared for Clearly Investments on 31 Oct 2025 16:45 GMT.
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