• Macro calendar: FOMC minutes and a Powell appearance headline the US; euro area has key retail sales and surveys; BoE has a Bailey speech tonight. (S&P Global)
• US data risk: Parts of the official calendar are disrupted by the US government shutdown, so expect patchy releases and higher intraday noise. (Reuters)
• Sentiment & markets: Eurozone investor morale improved into October; oil is subdued and stock-specific news (e.g., Exxon pre-announcement) starts to build ahead of earnings season. (Reuters)

House read: Supportive sentiment + calm oil favour a balanced, quality-tilted stance; keep some hedge while US data flows remain uncertain.

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The diary (all times UK)

Mon 6 Oct

• BoE: Andrew Bailey keynote (text 16:00; speech ~19:30). (Bank of England)

Tue 7 Oct

• Euro area: Retail sales / sentiment updates (survey window). (Trading Economics)

Wed 8 Oct

• FOMC minutes from September meeting; Chair Powell remarks (times per US schedule). (S&P Global)

Thu 9 Oct

• US: Initial jobless claims (status depends on shutdown). (Reuters)

Fri 10 Oct

• US: Private-sector reports may print; some official data may be delayed pending funding. (Reuters)

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Earnings & company catalysts (selected)

• ExxonMobil (Q3 guide): upstream and refining up vs Q2 per filing; oil price beta in focus. (Reuters)
• PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, TCS, Porsche headline the week-ahead tape across US/Europe/India. (MarketScreener)
• UK watchlist: Tesco has just reported H1 (keep an eye on read-across to UK staples through guidance snippets and trading updates this week). (Yahoo Finance)

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Winners & losers: set-ups to watch

• Potential winners:
  • Quality growth & defensives if Fed minutes sound dovish and US data remain muted. (S&P Global)
  • Airlines/transport/consumer if oil stays subdued. (Plus500)
• Potential laggards:
  • Energy equities if crude remains range-bound and guidance cools. (Reuters)

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Flows & sentiment (quick pulse)

• Euro area: Sentix jump hints at improving risk appetite (still below long-run average, so not euphoric). (Reuters)
• US tone: With a shutdown in place, Fed minutes/Powell may dominate positioning more than usual this week. (Comerica)

Bottom line: Slight risk-on skew, but keep hedges given US data uncertainty.

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UK corner (for a London reader)

• Policy: Bailey’s evening keynote; any remarks on the growth-inflation trade-off or QT path will be parsed for gilts/GBP. (Bank of England)
• Corporate read-across: Tesco’s H1 print gives a live check on UK grocery volumes/mix; look for any follow-on trading statements from UK consumer names this week. (Yahoo Finance)

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Next-week radar (early flags)

• US Q3 earnings ramps, with consumer and financials in focus; Europe follows. (MarketScreener)

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Notes & sources

• Calendars/diary: BoE events page; S&P Global week-ahead; Comerica FX calendar (minutes/Powell). (Bank of England)
• US shutdown impact: Reuters explainer with which agencies/data are paused. (Reuters)
• Sentiment: Reuters report on October Sentix. (Reuters)
• Earnings: Reuters (Exxon filing) and MarketScreener week-ahead. (Reuters)
• UK corporates: Yahoo Finance / company results centre for Tesco H1. (Yahoo Finance)