Here’s the Monday Report – The Week Ahead for 15‑21 September 2025, covering what markets & investors are likely to focus on:

---

Economic Data & Indicators

• U.S. Retail Sales & Import Prices (Tuesday) — Key for gauging consumer strength and inflation pressures.
• Housing Starts & Building Permits (Wednesday, U.S.) — Will give insight into construction activity, which has been soft.
• UK Earnings, Unemployment & CPI (Tuesday‑Wednesday) — UK labor market and inflation data will test how persistent inflationary pressures are, and whether the BoE will lean hawkish.
• China Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Monday) — Early indicator for global growth; weaker numbers could affect risk sentiment.

---

Central Banks & Policy

• Federal Reserve (16‑17 September) — Widely expected to cut the federal funds rate by 25bps; “dot plot” projections and Powell’s guidance will be closely watched.
• Bank of Canada — Policy meeting this week. Markets are looking for cues on whether it joins the easing cycle.
• Bank of England — Decision expected later in the week; inflation persistence may complicate calls for further rate cuts.
• Bank of Japan — Scheduled to meet; likely to remain steady but signalling (if any) of tightening will be notable.

---

Corporate Earnings & Events

• Earnings releases look lighter compared to policy events – no very large‑mega cap reports dominate this week. (Data sources do not list large scheduled earnings beyond typical corporate calendar)
• Major event is Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections and Chair Powell’s press conference — high potential for volatility depending on guidance.

---

Geopolitics & Macro Themes

• Fed Independence / Political Pressure — Legal battles around Fed Governor Lisa Cook and broader political scrutiny could be a theme during the Fed meeting.
• Trade & China — China’s growth data will feed into trade & commodity‑related narratives; any signs of further weakening add to global risk concerns.
• Currency & Bond Market Volatility — Given central bank meetings in several major economies, expect heightened FX and sovereign bond yield moves.

---

Key Themes & Market Narrative

1. Tightrope for Central Banks: balancing weakening growth, inflation above target, and risk of overtightening.
2. Expectations vs Surprise: Investors are almost certain of a US rate cut; focus shifts to how dovish or hawkish the Fed will be.
3. Lagging Inflation vs Labour Market Cooling: employment softness vs inflation persistence will shape policy paths.
4. Watch for Guidance: forward‑looking statements from Fed, BoE, and BoC could shift expectations across markets.
5. Risk of Volatility Spikes: multiple policy events mean markets may overreact to small surprises, especially inFX, rates, and commodities.