As of: Fri 17 Oct 2025,

WTD / YTD Scoreboard (snapshot)

• FTSE 100: WTD ~‑0.8% (Fri‑to‑Fri intraday), YTD ~+14% (9,354 vs 8,173 on 31‑Dec‑2024).
• STOXX 600: WTD ~+0.5%, YTD ~+13.7% (price index).
• S&P 500: WTD ~+0.9% (vs 10 Oct close 6,552), YTD ~+13.5% (price).
• Gold (spot): WTD ~+7–8%; hit fresh record >$4,300/oz. YTD ~+57%.
• Brent crude: WTD ~‑3% (≈$61/bbl).
• GBP/USD: WTD ~+0.7%, trades ~1.34. YTD ~+7.5%.
• 10‑yr Gilts / USTs: UK ~4.5% (weekly ↓, steepest since Apr); US ~4.0% (weekly ↓).

This week’s drivers

• Safe‑haven bid: Gold’s biggest weekly surge since 2008 on rate‑cut expectations, central‑bank buying and macro/geopolitical jitters.
• Energy weak: Brent on track for a weekly loss amid inventory builds, supply outlook, and geopolitics.
• Banks wobble: Fresh US regional bank concerns spilled into Europe; FTSE 100 led lower by UK banks.
• Bonds rally: Gilts outperformed as fiscal tone turned tighter; yields fell notably on the week.
• Data blackout effects: The ongoing US government shutdown delayed key releases, lifting event risk.

Winners & losers (sector/style)

• Winners: Precious metals; bond‑proxies/defensives on falling yields.
• Losers: Banks (UK & EU); Energy on softer oil; European defence on potential Trump–Putin summit headlines.

Flows & sentiment (incl. Risk‑On/Off score)

• Gold inflows: SPDR Gold holdings rose to the highest since mid‑2022.
• FX: Sterling firmer on the week vs USD, but safe‑havens (CHF/JPY) saw demand today.
• Volatility: VIX spiked earlier in the week, consistent with fragile risk appetite.
• Risk‑On/Off score: 3/10 (Risk‑Off) — gold bid, bonds bid, equities mixed with bank‑led drawdowns.

UK corner

• Equities: FTSE 100 lower WTD; banks & oils lagged.
• Rates: 10‑yr gilt ~4.5%, best weekly rally since April on fiscal/repricing signals.
• FX: GBPUSD ~1.34; up ~0.7% WTD.
• Key UK data ahead: CPI (Sep) — Wed 22 Oct, 07:00 UK; Retail Sales (Sep) — Fri 24 Oct, 07:00 UK.

Next‑week radar (high‑impact)

• US CPI (Sep) — Fri 24 Oct, 08:30 ET (delayed due to shutdown).
• UK CPI (Sep) — Wed 22 Oct, 07:00 UK.
• Flash PMIs (US/EZ/UK) — Fri 24 Oct (S&P Global).
• Earnings: Netflix Tue 21 Oct (AMC); Tesla Wed 22 Oct (AMC); Coca‑Cola Tue 21 Oct (BMO); IBM Wed 22 Oct; P&G Fri 24 Oct (BMO)