Monday 27 Oct 2025 | 07:50 GMT | London
60‑Second Takeaway
- Equities consolidating: global indices flat to slightly higher after last week’s mixed corporate results.
- Macro calendar returns to normal: US CPI data finally published Friday confirmed disinflation trend (headline +2.6 % YoY), helping rates ease.
- Yields retreat: gilts and Treasuries rallied; markets pricing first BoE/ Fed cuts for Q1 2026.
- Commodities diverge: gold steady near record highs, oil subdued on softer demand expectations.
- Flows tilt defensive: continued bond inflows, light equity rotation.
- Risk‑On/Off score = 🔹5 / 10 (Neutral) — macro calm offsets soft growth pulse.
Macro Calendar (BST highlights)
| Day | Key Events | Focus |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 27 Oct | ECB speakers · BoE Tenreyro speech · US regional Fed surveys | Tone‑setting remarks |
| Tue 28 Oct | US Consumer Confidence · German IFO | Sentiment read |
| Wed 29 Oct | UK Retail Sales (Sep, final) · US ADP Jobs | Labour‑market texture |
| Thu 30 Oct | Eurozone CPI flash · US Jobless Claims | Inflation confirmation |
| Fri 31 Oct | US PCE deflator (Sep) · China PMI · Month‑end rebalancing | Major data + flows |
Earnings Highlights (this week)
| Day | Company | Theme |
|---|---|---|
| Tue 28 Oct | Microsoft · Alphabet | Cloud & AI margins |
| Wed 29 Oct | Meta Platforms | Ads vs spend pivot |
| Thu 30 Oct | Amazon · Intel | Consumer + chips |
| Fri 31 Oct | Shell · NatWest | Energy & UK banks tone |
Cross‑Asset Scoreboard (07:30 GMT)
| Asset | Level | WTD | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ≈ 9 360 | 0 % | +13.9 % |
| Stoxx 600 | ≈ 551 | +0.2 % | +14.4 % |
| S&P 500 fut. | 6 575 | +0.3 % | +13.8 % |
| Gold (spot) | $4 295 /oz | ‑0.2 % | +56 % |
| Brent crude | $60.9 /bbl | +0.5 % | ‑5 % |
| GBP/USD | 1.342 | +0.1 % | +7.7 % |
| 10‑yr Gilt yield | 4.46 % | ‑2 bps | ‑40 bps YTD |
Drivers & Themes
- Earnings‑led tone: Tech megacaps dominate week’s direction; banks and energy still soft.
- Inflation confirmation: US CPI/PCE both near 2.5 % YoY → real‑yield relief.
- Commodities: oil base forming near $60; gold’s momentum slowing but supportive.
- Currencies: dollar stable; GBP steady within 1.34–1.35 band.
- Credit: IG spreads flat; HY tightened 2 bps → modest risk appetite.
- Flows: +$5 bn into global bond funds, +$1 bn into gold ETFs, +$0.5 bn equities (Quality/Tech‑tilt).
Sentiment Dashboard
| Indicator | Reading | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| AAII Bull‑Bear Spread | +3 pts | Neutral‑Positive |
| CNN Fear & Greed | 52 / 100 | Neutral |
| VIX | 16.9 | Stable |
| Gold/Oil ratio | 70.4 | Defensive bias |
| USD DXY | 102.5 | Balanced |
| Composite Risk‑On/Off Score | 5 / 10 | Neutral |
UK Corner
- Equities: Banks and energy remain drags; defensives leading.
- Rates: Gilt curve flatter as front‑end pricing 1Q 2026 rate cut.
- Sterling: buoyed by macro stability and yield support.
- Watch: NatWest & Shell results for sector direction; UK Retail Sales on Wed.
Our view / Playbook
- Equities: maintain balanced exposure; overweight quality growth until earnings clarity improves.
- Bonds: Hold short IG for carry; extend duration selectively on yield weakness.
- Commodities: neutral; oil may re‑base in $58–63 band.
- FX: keep GBP bias long vs EUR.
- Overall stance: Neutral / Balanced risk heading into month‑end rebalancing.
For information purposes only — not investment advice.
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