Week Ending Friday 31 Oct 2025 | 16:45 GMT | London

🌍 Market Scoreboard

 Asset  WTD %  YTD %  Notes 
 FTSE 100  ‑0.3 %  +13.5 %  Energy & banks weighed on gains 
 STOXX 600  +0.4 %  +14.7 %  Europe resilient, led by luxury & staples 
 S&P 500  +0.6 %  +14.1 %  Tech steady; defensive bid continued 
 NASDAQ 100  +0.9 %  +16.5 %  Earnings beat from Big Tech 
 Gold (spot)  +0.8 %  +57 %  Safe‑haven bid intact 
 Brent crude  ‑1.1 %  ‑6 %  Demand concerns → price drift 
 GBP/USD  +0.2 %  +7.9 %  Sterling firm on soft‑landing hopes 
 10‑yr Gilt yield  4.44 % (‑3 bps WTD)  ‑42 bps YTD  BoE cut expectations firming 

🧭 Key Drivers

  • Macro: US CPI (+2.6 % YoY) and Eurozone CPI (+2.4 %) underscored disinflation; bond markets rallied.
  • Earnings: Big Tech beat expectations (Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon) while banks and energy lagged.
  • Rates: Fed and BoE speakers hint at policy plateau → yield curve bull‑flattening.
  • Commodities: Gold steady at record zone; oil soft amid muted China PMI (49.4).
  • Flows: ETF data show continued bond buying (+$6 bn), gold (+$1.5 bn), equities flat.

🏆 Winners & Losers

 Category  Winners  Losers 
 Sectors  Tech (Cloud & AI) · Healthcare · Utilities  Energy · Financials · Real Estate 
 Regions  US > EU > UK  Asia lagged on weak China data 
 Styles  Quality Growth & Momentum  Value & Cyclicals 

💰 Flows & Sentiment

  • Global flows: $6 bn into bonds, $1.5 bn into gold ETFs, equities net flat.
  • Retail sentiment: AAII Bull‑Bear spread ‑2 → neutral zone.
  • VIX: 16.7 (‑0.4 WTD) → low volatility regime persists.
  • Gold/Oil ratio: ~71 → defensive bias remains.
  • USD DXY: 102.3 (‑0.2 %) → slight softening.
  • Composite Risk‑On/Off Score: 5 / 10 → Neutral.

🇬🇧 UK Corner

  • Equities: FTSE soft (‑0.3 %) as banks and energy drag; defensives offset losses.
  • Gilts: Rally continued; 2‑yr yield below 4.5 % first time since April.
  • Sterling: Stable above 1.34 vs USD; carry appeal intact.
  • Data: UK Retail Sales (+0.3 % m/m) beat consensus; consumer resilience noted.
  • BoE Watch: Nov meeting expected to hold rates; markets price first cut for Feb 2026.

🔭 Next‑Week Radar (Week of 3 Nov)

 Day  Focus  Notes 
 Mon 3 Nov  US ISM Manufacturing · BoE MPC speeches  Activity tone check 
 Tue 4 Nov  Eurozone GDP (Q3) · US Factory Orders  Growth confirmation 
 Wed 5 Nov  BoE Rate Decision  Hold expected — guidance key 
 Thu 6 Nov  US Jobless Claims · China Caixin PMI  Global growth pulse 
 Fri 7 Nov  US Non‑Farm Payrolls (Oct)  Labour trend pivot 

Clearly Perspective

  • Maintain neutral risk stance heading into central‑bank week.
  • Overweight quality growth equities; stay long core bonds.
  • Retain defensive hedges via gold & low‑beta exposure.
  • Cash balance ↑ for opportunistic re‑entry on pullbacks.

Prepared for Clearly Investments on 31 Oct 2025 16:45 GMT.