August 2026 Views
🔭 Risk-on — but the easy gains may be behind us
🌍 The Big Picture
The broad institutional message remains cautiously positive. Four of the five organisations reviewed still favour equities, supported by resilient economic growth, strong company earnings and continued investment in artificial intelligence.
But the tone has changed. Investors are being encouraged to look beyond a small group of expensive US technology companies and towards a wider mix of regions and sectors. Views on government bonds are divided, while enthusiasm for corporate bonds depends heavily on credit quality. BCA Research is the clear outlier, adopting a more defensive stance as its models point towards slower growth and possible recession risks.
📊 TAA Consensus Tracker
| Institution | Global Equities | Key Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate consensus | 4 of 5 positive | Institutions remain cautiously positive, but increasingly favour diversification over concentrated US technology exposure. |
| UBS | Overweight | Expects further market gains, supported by company earnings and broader participation beyond the largest US shares. |
| BlackRock | Overweight, US-led | Prefers US equities, particularly companies with strong earnings and exposure to long-term investment themes. |
| Schroders | Overweight | Remains positive on equities but stresses the importance of valuations, regional diversification and portfolio resilience. |
| Amundi | Mild overweight | Favours Europe, Japan and emerging markets while becoming less enthusiastic about concentrated US exposure. |
| BCA Research | Slight underweight | Takes the most defensive view, warning that slower economic growth could challenge current market optimism. |
🧠 Institutional Views: A Deep Dive
Earnings still support equities
UBS and BlackRock believe the equity rally remains supported by profits rather than speculation alone. UBS expects the next phase to involve a broader range of regions and companies, while BlackRock continues to favour US shares because earnings growth is still outpacing the rising cost of borrowing. Both warn that portfolios concentrated in a handful of AI-related companies face greater disappointment risk.
The market is rotating
Amundi has reduced its positive stance on the market-cap-weighted S&P 500 while retaining a constructive view on the equal-weighted index. It favours Europe, Japan and emerging markets over highly concentrated US exposure. For a UK investor, this supports checking whether a global tracker has quietly become dominated by a small number of large American companies.
Bonds are attractive — but duration divides opinion
Schroders has upgraded government bonds because yields now offer more meaningful income. Amundi also likes selected US and European maturities. BlackRock and BCA are more cautious about long-dated bonds, where prices can fall sharply if inflation, government borrowing or interest-rate expectations rise. This distinction matters: owning bonds is not the same as owning lots of duration risk.
Credit requires selectivity
Corporate bonds offer useful income, but spreads—the extra yield paid above government bonds—remain relatively tight. Schroders therefore holds a negative view, while Amundi prefers European investment-grade debt and BlackRock emphasises companies with strong cash flows and creditor protections. The consensus is not “avoid credit”; it is do not accept weak protection for a small amount of extra income.
🤔 The Contrarian View
BCA Research is the main outlier. Its MacroQuant model recommends slightly underweighting equities and holding less bond duration than the benchmark, while favouring the US dollar. This suggests concern that today’s resilient conditions may give way to slower growth before inflation risks have fully disappeared.
💡 DIY Investor Takeaway
- Check concentration. A global fund may contain far more US mega-cap technology exposure than expected.
- Separate bonds from duration. Short, medium and long-dated bonds can behave very differently.
- Review credit quality. Higher yields often come with higher default or refinancing risk.
- Remember currency exposure. Unhedged overseas investments can rise or fall because of sterling movements as well as asset prices.
- Use institutional views as context. They can help test a portfolio’s diversification, but should not drive short-term decisions.
© Clearly Investments Ltd. Educational information only. This is not investment advice.
