Market Wrap — 10th April 2026

Weekly Market Wrap – 10 April 2026

Summary: After weeks of elevated tension and surging energy prices driven by the Middle East conflict, a surprise US-Iran ceasefire agreement sent global markets into overdrive — triggering the strongest single-day rally on Wall Street in roughly a year. Oil cratered, volatility collapsed, and investors who had been sitting nervously on the sidelines found their portfolios surging. But as the dust settled, the ceasefire was already being tested — making this one of those weeks where the headline tells only half the story.

📈 Weekly Scoreboard

🌍 Global Drivers & Macro

• The ceasefire that moved everything. Late on Tuesday, the White House and Tehran confirmed a two-week ceasefire contingent on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This single announcement on Wednesday caused the S&P 500 to surge +2.5% — its best daily gain in about a year.
• Oil’s spectacular fall. Brent crude tumbled approximately 11% over the week, with Wednesday alone seeing a staggering -16% intraday move — the largest single-day oil decline since April 2020. Oil had surged over 65% year-to-date prior to this week as the conflict drove energy supply fears; the ceasefire partially unwound those gains.
• The Fed stayed patient. The Federal Reserve’s March meeting minutes, released this week, confirmed the central bank is in no rush to cut rates — with 7 of 19 members forecasting zero cuts in 2026. The 10-year US Treasury yield barely moved on the week (settling around 4.30%), suggesting bond markets want more evidence before changing their view.

🇬🇧 UK Corner

• The FTSE 100 had a solid week, but the FTSE 250 did better. The FTSE 100 rose 1.57% to 10,600.53, while the more UK-focused FTSE 250 gained about 3.27% to 22,351.02, suggesting domestic shares benefited more from the improved mood and lower near-term rate fears.
• The Bank of England picture is still finely balanced. The BoE held Bank Rate at 3.75% in March and warned inflation could rise to around 3.5% in the coming quarters; after the ceasefire, markets trimmed their bets on further tightening, while a Reuters poll in late March still pointed to rates staying at 3.75% through year-end.
• UK data showed the economy is feeling the strain of higher energy costs. The March services PMI slowed sharply, Halifax said house prices fell in March, and a RICS survey showed buyer demand and sales expectations weakened as higher mortgage rates hit confidence.

🏦 Key Asset Movers

• FX: the pound strengthened. Sterling climbed to about $1.3458 and was on track for its biggest weekly rise since mid-January, helped by a softer dollar and a broader “risk-on” move as geopolitical nerves eased. A firmer pound can help reduce pressure from imported inflation, although it can also take a little shine off overseas earnings for UK multinationals.
• Commodities: oil cooled, gold stayed firm. Brent fell sharply on the week to around $95 a barrel, which helped calm inflation fears, but gold still held near record territory and posted a weekly gain of roughly 2%, showing some investors still wanted protection.

📰 Key Headlines

• Reuters: Wall Street finished the week with its strongest gains since November as ceasefire hopes boosted sentiment, even though Friday’s CPI report was hotter than expected.
• Reuters: Brent crude posted its biggest weekly drop since 2022, easing one of the market’s biggest short-term worries.
• Reuters: Global equity fund inflows nearly doubled to $23.47bn in the week to 8 April, with tech funds attracting the biggest sector inflows.
• Reuters: China’s producer prices turned positive for the first time in more than three years, highlighting the global inflation impact of the energy shock.
• Reuters: Sterling logged its strongest week since mid-January as investors pulled back from the dollar.
• Reuters: European shares rose for a third straight week as investors responded to cautious optimism around U.S.-Iran talks.

📑 Companies Reporting

• Delta Air Lines: Delta warned the fuel surge could add more than $2bn to June-quarter costs and cut planned growth, a reminder that even good demand cannot fully offset an energy shock.
• Levi Strauss: Levi raised its full-year sales and profit guidance, and the shares jumped about 10%, showing investors still reward companies that can defend margins and keep demand firm.
• TSMC: While full earnings are next week, its quarterly revenue update was strong enough to lift chip sentiment this week, reinforcing the view that AI spending remains a powerful market theme.
• Palantir Technologies: Dropped 12.1% this week as investors rotated out of high-valuation software names following news of a new rival AI model, “Claude Mythos.”
• Workday: Fell 14.5% on fears that rapid AI advancements could disrupt its core business model for enterprise software.

⚖️ Investor Sentiment Dashboard

Still very cautious. The VIX closed at about 19.23, down from recent stress levels, which suggests investors are less fearful than they were a few sessions ago. But the AAII bull-bear spread stayed negative at roughly -7.2, and the Fear & Greed reading remained in fear territory at about 38, so private investors are still not fully convinced.

Fund flows tell a similar story. Global equity funds took in $23.47bn in the week to 8 April, with strong buying in U.S. and European equities and a big tilt toward technology, but money market funds still pulled in a hefty $72.05bn. In other words, investors added risk, but they also kept one foot near the exit.

📅 Next Week’s Radar

• Tuesday 14 April, about 13:30 JPMorgan is due to report before the New York open, kicking off a key week for U.S. bank earnings.
• Wednesday 15 April, early UK morning: ASML reports Q1 results, an important read-across for the chip and AI supply chain; its investor call is scheduled for 15:00 CET.
• Thursday 16 April, 07:00 BST: The UK releases its monthly GDP estimate for February, one of the clearest near-term checks on whether the economy is coping with higher borrowing and energy costs.
• Thursday 16 April, 07:00 BST and late evening UK time: TSMC holds its earnings conference at 14:00 Taiwan / 02:00 Eastern, and Netflix is due to post first-quarter results at about 1:01 p.m. Pacific, both potential movers for global tech sentiment.

⚡ The Final Take

This week was a masterclass in just how quickly market narratives can reverse — a single geopolitical announcement wiped away weeks of fear in a matter of hours. The FTSE 100’s more measured +1.57% gain compared to Wall Street’s near-+4% surge is a reminder that UK investors have a different index with different sector exposures, and sometimes that steadier ship is exactly what’s needed. The ceasefire is fragile, earnings season is about to begin, and oil’s future direction holds the key to inflation and interest rates — next week promises to be every bit as eventful. Hang on.

© Clearly Investments Ltd. Educational information only. This is not investment advice.