Weekly Market Wrap — 3rd April 2026

🌟 Relief Rally, Rising Oil, and a Market Still on Edge

It was a week of rebound, but not quite of reassurance. Global equities bounced back strongly, with the S&P 500 snapping a five-week losing streak, as investors took comfort from steady economic growth and some bargain-hunting after March’s wobble. But the mood was far from carefree: oil stayed high, euro area inflation re-accelerated, and a firm U.S. jobs report made quick Federal Reserve rate cuts look less likely.

📈 Weekly Scoreboard

Index | Weekly Change (%) | Current Level
S&P 500 | 3.36% | 6582.69
Nasdaq Composite | 2.75% | 21879.18
EURO STOXX 50 | 3.4% | 5692.86
FTSE 100 | 4.7% | 10436.29
Nikkei 225 | -0.47% | 53123.49
MSCI Emerging Markets | 0.26% | 1440.95
China (SSE Composite) | -0.86% | 3880.1

This was a holiday-shortened week, so London, New York and euro area indices use Thursday 2 April closes; Japan and China use Friday 3 April closes.

🌍 Global Drivers

The U.S. economy still looks resilient. March payrolls rose by 178,000 and unemployment was 4.3%, which helped calm recession fears but also reduced hopes of an early Fed rate cut.
Oil kept inflation nerves alive. Brent swung sharply and settled around $109 on Thursday after a late-week surge, reminding markets that energy shocks can quickly feed through to inflation and consumer spending.
Europe had an inflation reminder. Euro area inflation rose to 2.5% in March from 1.9%, with energy a big part of the move, showing that the path back to price stability may not be smooth.
China’s signal was mixed. Manufacturing held up, but services growth slowed and price pressures picked up, which points to a global economy that is still growing, just unevenly.

🇬🇧 UK Corner

The FTSE 100 had a very strong week. Reuters market data showed the index up 4.7% over the holiday-shortened week, helped by big energy names such as BP and Shell, while the more UK-focused FTSE 250 also gained 3.45%.
For UK DIY investors, sector mix mattered. The FTSE 100’s heavy weighting in oil, pharma and other global earners worked well this week, which is a reminder that the UK market often behaves differently from U.S. growth-heavy indices.
The Bank of England picture is still awkward. A BoE survey showed firms now expect stronger price rises over the next year, but official data also confirmed UK GDP grew only 0.1% in Q4, leaving policymakers stuck between sticky inflation and weak growth.

🏦 Asset Movers

FX: GBP/USD was little changed, but slightly softer. Sterling traded around 1.3234 at week’s end versus about 1.3260 a week earlier, which matters because a softer pound can boost the overseas earnings of many FTSE 100 companies when translated back into sterling.
Commodities: Brent stayed high and volatile. Even though oil finished the week below the previous Friday’s close, Thursday’s near-8% jump showed how quickly geopolitical tension can shake inflation expectations and market confidence.

📰 Key Headlines

Reuters: U.S. payrolls rose by 178,000 in March, supporting the idea that the economy is slowing only gently rather than cracking.
Reuters: Euro area inflation rose back to 2.5%, which pushed back against the idea that inflation is neatly “solved.”
Reuters: The S&P 500 ended its five-week losing streak, showing investors were willing to buy back into weakness.
Reuters: China’s services PMI slowed, a sign that momentum in the world’s second-largest economy is still patchy.
Reuters: Brent oil surged after fresh U.S.-Iran tension, keeping energy markets front and centre.
Reuters: The BoE’s own survey showed UK firms expect faster price rises ahead, complicating the interest-rate outlook.
Reuters: UK GDP for Q4 was confirmed at just 0.1%, underlining how soft the domestic growth backdrop still is.

📑 Companies reporting

This was a relatively quiet week for true index heavyweight earnings. However, eyes are already turning to the second week of April, when JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo are expected to kick off the US Q1 2026 earnings season.

Nike: The sportswear group warned that fourth-quarter sales would fall more than expected, and the shares dropped sharply as investors focused on weak demand and China softness.
Berkeley Group: While not a full earnings report, the upgrade and news of director share buying led to a strong recovery in its share price amidst a wider property sector slump.
Speedy Hire: Warned of worsening market conditions in its FY26 update, leading to a sharp drop in its share price as industrial demand softens.

⚖️ Investor Sentiment

The mood still looks cautious. The VIX stayed elevated around the high-20s, the latest AAII bull-bear spread was -17.9, and CNN’s Fear & Greed reading sat around 15, which is firmly in “extreme fear” territory. Taken together, that says this week’s rebound was more of a relief move than a full-throated return to confidence. Overall verdict: still Risk-Off in sentiment, even if prices had a Risk-On week.

The latest available fund-flow data told a similar story. Global equity funds pulled in about $37.8bn in the week to 25 March, driven mainly by U.S. equity inflows of $37.2bn, while Europe and emerging markets saw outflows; global bond funds also took in fresh money, especially short-dated government debt. In plain English, investors were willing to add to big U.S. equities, but they were still keeping one foot in safer assets.

📅 Next Week’s Radar

Wednesday 8 April, 19:00 UK: Fed minutes — markets will want clues on how worried policymakers are about inflation versus growth.
Thursday 9 April, 13:00 UK: Constellation Brands earnings call — useful as an early read on U.S. consumer demand.
Friday 10 April, 02:30 UK: China CPI/PPI — important for the global growth and factory-price picture.
Friday 10 April, 13:30 UK: U.S. CPI — the week’s biggest macro release, because it could reshape rate-cut expectations very quickly.

⚡ The Final Take

This week showed that markets can rally even when the backdrop still looks uncomfortable. Investors liked the fact that growth has not cracked, but high oil, firmer inflation prints and still-nervous sentiment mean this remains a market that needs good news to keep climbing.